Marko Regža's potential to follow Andrej Ilić's footsteps

Mon, 15 Apr 2024 20:43:00 +0000

Marko Regža. Photo: Zigismunds Zālmanis (Riga FC)

Marko Regža (Riga FC), the top scorer of the 2023 Virslīga, continues what he started last season in the 2024 season as well. Let's see if Marko can follow Andrej Ilić's rapid rise through the European football leagues.

Andrej Ilić in Virslīga

Andrej Ilić. Photo: LOSC Lille

Andrej Ilić (ex. RFS, currently LOSC Lille) arrived in the Virslīga in the 2021 season and at that time, according to Transfermarkt data, his market value was around 500,000 Euros. In the 2021 season, Ilić played 8 games and collected 3+3.

The first full season for him was in 2022, when Andrej scored 16 goals and provided 6 assists in 32 games. Already after that season, there was interest in buying the player from various clubs, but the greatest interest was from the Latvian eastern neighbors and this situation created tension and everyone was waiting for a decision to be made by the RFS. You can read more here.

In the 2023 season, Ilić managed to play 25 games in the Virslīga before moving to Norwegian top tier team Vålerenga for ~1.6 million Euros. In these 25 games, Ilić got 14 goals and 6 assists.

Ilić did not stay long in Norway and after half a season moved to the French Ligue 1 team LOSC Lille for ~4,000,000 Euros, 20% of which is due to RFS.

At the time Vålerenga bought Ilić , his market value was around 1 million Euros.

Breakout season and stability

The 2022 season can be considered the breakout season of Andrej Ilić, when he proved himself as the leader of the RFS attack, scoring not only in the Virslīga, but also in the UEFA Conference League against Fiorentina.

Andrej played 2722 minutes in the Virslīga in the 2022 season:

3,37 shots per 90;
0,53 goals per 90;
Shot conversion rate: 16%;
102 shots;
16 goals;

From the shot map, you can see that Ilić is a pronounced center forward, who looks for his opportunities in the penalty area and near the goal.

In the 2023 season, Andrej had to maintain his level at the level of the previous season, to prove that he is a stable striker and that the previous season was not just luck.

He did it successfully. 1905 minutes were played in 25 games:

4,54 shots per 90;
0,66 goals per 90;
Shot conversion rate: 14,6%;
96 shots;
14 goals;

So Andrej not only stabilized his performance in the Virslīga, but even improved his indicators in shots per 90 (+1.17 per 90) and goals scored per 90 (+0.13 per 90).

The average shot conversion in both seasons was ~15%.

With these indicators, he created interest and the opportunity to move to a stronger championship.

Marko Regža in Virslīga

Marko made his debut in the Virslīga in 2016, when he went on the field 2 times as part of RFS, accumulating 7 minutes.

Marko played his next minutes in the Virslīga already in 2018, when he played 3 times for RFS and accumulated 99 minutes and scored 1 goal.

In 2019, Marko played in both the Latvian 1st League (2nd tier) and the Virslīga. In the 1st League, 4 goals were scored in 8 games as a player of SK Super Nova and in the Virslīga 11 games without a goal scored in the ranks of BFC Daugavpils.

In 2020, Marko continued to play for the BFC Daugavpils team and scored 7 goals in 15 games.

In 2021, Marko returns to the RFS - 11 games in the Virslīga without scoring a goal.

Marko spends the 2022 Virslīga season with SK Super Nova, where he takes on the role of offensive leader in a team fighting to stay in the Virslīga. It is done quite successfully - 8 goals scored and 2 assists in 27 games.

After this season, to the surprise of many, Marko joins Riga FC. No one could even imagine that he would compete with the players of Riga FC's offensive line from the starting eleven. A rotational role was envisaged. But Marko proved himself well in the pre-season camp and Riga FC coach Tomislav Stipić trusted this player throughout the 2023 season.

Marko finished the 2023 season with 19 goals and 3 assists in 34 games:

3,48 shots per 90;
0,75 goals per 90;
Shot conversion rate: 21,6%;
88 shots;
19 goals;

As we can see, compared to Ilić, Marko has a much higher shot conversion rate (21.6%) and a better rate of scored goals per 90 (0.75). The indicator in which Marko lags behind Andrej - shots per 90.

It was important for Marko, like Andrej, to prove that the previous season was not a coincidence and that this season, under the leadership of the new coach Simo Valakari, has started very effectively - this season he has managed to collect 7+2 in the first 6 gameweeks.

At this stage of the season Marko Regža's market value by Transfermarkt is valued around 450,000 Euros

After 6 games on Marco's account in 547 minutes:

3,29 shots per 90;
1,15 goals per 90;
Shot conversion rate: 35%;
20 shots;
7 goals;
6,47 xG;
1,06 xG/90
4,89 npxG;
0,80 npxG/90

Clearly, Marko has an insanely high shot conversion rate right now and it should drop over time, but assuming he continues to shoot as often as he is now and the shot conversion rate drops to last season's level (21.6%), then ~99 more shots would be made in the remaining 30 games and they would result in at least 21 goals, that way Marco could finish the season with 28 goals.

Of course, anything can happen, but right now Marko is in TOP form and the best striker in the Virslīga, which could potentially be a tasty morsel for a team in a stronger championship.

Verdict

I believe that several factors work in favor of Marko's transition to a better championship:

Latvian national team player - makes a football player's CV more appealing;
The offensive leader of one of the league's strongest teams;
Very high goal scoring rate - 7 goals in 6 games;
Currently incredibly high level of shot conversion - 35%;
Height and physical parameters that help fight aerial battles and are an additional weapon in the offensive arsenal;
Able to score goals with both feet - this season 5 goals with the right foot, 2 goals with the left;
Strikers are always in demand in the transfer market.

Factors that could hinder Marco's transition to a better championship:

Riga FC's participation in the Eurocups - if the group stage is reached, I don't see how Marko could leave;
Lack of a suitable substitute in the Riga FC team - currently Marko has played 94% of the team's playing time in the season, so he is replaced only at the end of the game, there are no forwards who could compete and fight for more minutes in the squad;
The transfer fee that Riga FC would demand - knowing the value of Marko, they can demand a very high fee, which the interested clubs potentially could not afford;
Age (Ilic left the Virslīga at the age of 23, Marko is currently 25), because currently the transfer market tends to attract young and talented players to teams, but there are also exceptions that look for more mature players.

Summing up all the information, I believe that Marko is one of the players who has the potential to play in a stronger league and this season could be the best time to try his luck outside of Latvia, as he has already proven his level here.

Blog posts in Latvian

Mon, 15 Apr 2024 09:38:00 +0000

Previous blog posts that are in Latvian:

OPTIBET Virslīga 2022 | Apskats #1 | Apmeklētība (OPTIBET Virslīga 2022 | Review #1 | Attendance)
OPTIBET Virslīga 2022 | Apskats #2 | Spēlētāji un treneri (OPTIBET Virslīga 2022 | Review #2 | Players and Managers)
OPTIBET Virslīga 2022 | Uzbrūkošās darbības (OPTIBET Virslīga 2022 | Attacking actions)
FK PPK STATISTIKAS APKOPOJUMS (FK PPK statistical summary)

StatsWithMatiss - Blog

Marko Regža's potential to follow Andrej Ilić's footsteps

Andrej Ilić in Virslīga

Breakout season and stability

Marko Regža in Virslīga

Verdict

Blog posts in Latvian